PARIS – The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations shared recent projections for meat consumption in the agency’s Agriculture Outlook from 2023 until 2032.
The report stated, “meat consumption patterns of consumers in most high-income countries have started to stagnate with changes mostly based on the type and quality of the meat consumed.”
In the outlook, the OECD and FAO estimated that poultry meat would account for 41% of protein consumed from all meat sources by 2032.
The groups also commented that the shifts in preferences might lead to shrinking per capita meat consumption, like in the European Union, which sees an ongoing substitution of beef and pork for poultry meat.
In its analysis, OECD and FAO explained some of the shifts in consumer behavior.
“Globally, there is a growing trend among consumers to become increasingly sensitive to animal welfare, environmental and health concerns and poultry has the least carbon footprint,” the report said.
By 2032, consumption is projected to grow by 15% for poultry, 11% for pork, 10% for beef and 15% for lamb around the world.
The Agricultural Outlook predicted a 2% rise in global meat consumption during the next 10 years.
Later in the report, global poultry was noted as already growing during the last decade in China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines. The trends are expected to continue with consumption projected to grow in other regions like Brazil, Sub-Saharan Africa and the United States.
In the pork category, global consumption will also grow in the next decade, outside of Europe, where consumption remains high but health, environmental and social concerns will impact consumer choice. Still, the outlook said that pig meat remains the most widely consumed meat in Europe.
OECD and FAO added that they expect to see changes in beef production, particularly in traditional markets.
“As a result, many consumers have chosen to reduce their beef consumption in favor of poultry meat which has a smaller environmental footprint,” the report said. “North America and Oceania, which historically have strongly preferred beef, are expected to see the most significant decrease in per capita consumption.”
Analysis from the group showed that upper middle-income countries will drive the increase in the demand for meat until 2040. Following that time, lower middle-income countries will lead, causing demand to grow until 2075.
“At some point during the remainder of the 21st century, global meat demand may begin to decline,” the report stated. “Nevertheless, resource and environmental constraints could limit further growth in meat supply and demand, potentially causing the turning point to arrive earlier