WASHINGTON — US tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would reduce trade of a variety of products between the three nations, while creating potential openings for other countries to expand exports, according to an analysis by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) would see opportunities from a trade war, particularly exporters of processed food products, fruits and vegetables, coffee and tea, and meats and fish. Grain and oilseed producers would also benefit if Mexico and Canada took counter-retaliatory measures against the United States, according to the analysis.

With 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, US imports from LAC and the rest of the world would increase to offset some of the decrease in imports from Canada and Mexico. LAC imports would increase 14.6%, and the rest of the world imports would increase 15.5%.

In a scenario with counter-retaliatory tariffs on US imports, the analysis found there would be sharp declines in US agrifood exports to Canada (down 66.3%) and Mexico (down 68.6%). Imports from LAC would increase 11.8%, and other regions would increase 12.8%. Bilateral trade between Canada and Mexico also would increase significantly.

LAC agrifood exports to the United States would increase when the United States places tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and also if Mexico and Canada counter-retaliate against US imports.

In the Andean region (Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela), agrifood exports to Canada, Mexico and the United States would increase by 7.5% in the no-retaliation scenario. Most of the gains (95%) come from increases in exports of fruits and vegetables (up 13.4%), processed food products (up 10.2%), and coffee and tea (up 2.8%). Andean region agrifood exports would increase by 12.3% under the counter-retaliation scenario.

Caribbean agrifood exports would increase by 13.9% with exports of fruits and vegetables, processed food products, sugar, and coffee and tea account for over 73% of the total export gain. Exports from the Caribbean would increase by 12.3% when counter-retaliatory tariffs are imposed.

Central America also gains with a 7.4% increase in agrifood exports and an increase of 19% in the case of counter retaliation.

In the Southern Cone (Uruguay, Argentina and Chile) exports would increase by 8.1% in the no-retaliation scenario and 19% in the case of retaliatory measures. Exports of grains would increase by almost 35% and oilseeds by 52%.

Increased LAC agrifood exports to Canada, Mexico and the United States does come at some expense to LAC intra-regional trade, according to the analysis. Agrifood exports to other countries in the region would decline by 1.5% with a larger impact for regions more integrated into the North American market (Caribbean, Andean Region and Central America).