UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — Many regions of the globe have seen improved economic conditions, and ongoing price increases for other proteins make poultry an attractive option for consumers worldwide. Poultry consumption around the world is predicted to grow 2.5% to 3% this year. This is the second consecutive year market growth has been above average, leading to significant margin performance improvements in many regions.  

“Almost all regions currently enjoy profitable market conditions, with the notable exception of China, which faces weaker economic conditions, waning consumer confidence, and an oversupplied domestic meat market after years of rapid expansion,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst, Animal Protein with RaboResearch.

Avian Influenza still spreading

Avian influenza continues to challenge the global poultry industry and remains one of its biggest operational concerns. In addition, parent stock supplies are still tight, and hatching egg prices are still high, restricting growth.

“Rising egg prices are now driving renewed interest in vaccination as a tool to combat avian flu threats,” Mulder noted. “The poultry industry has debated the use of vaccines in recent years, and more countries are adopting vaccination as a tool to reduce the risk of avian influenza spreading. In general, there is more support among egg producers than broiler producers. Concerns about trade impacts and mixed results in controlling the spread of disease have been key factors for several countries not adopting vaccination as a tool.” 

Some countries have seen success with vaccines. France, for example, was hit hard by avian influenza, particularly in its western regions, which traditionally produce Label Rouge (outdoor) and have a high number of ducks. After France adopted vaccination, it has seen a significantly lower number of cases and its domestic supply has completely recovered. Several countries in Asia and Latin America, where usually there is no compensation for farmers affected by avian influenza and export dependence is low, have seen similar results and introduced vaccines themselves.

2025 Geopolitics the most significant factor

Geopolitical tensions and competition pose the biggest challenges for global trade outside of ongoing avian influenza risks. Amid relatively tight global protein supply and growing consumption, global trade is expected to remain strong.

Although it’s historically the slow season of the year, the first quarter is expected to surpass year-on-year levels due to ongoing tight market conditions in key import markets such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the Middle East, as well as improved market conditions in Japan and Southeast Asia. The expected strong import demand should persist throughout the year and keep breast meat prices high. However, weak Chinese demand and local oversupply may limit upside.

US tariffs on imports and retaliatory tariffs on US poultry from affected regions, among other rising geopolitical tensions, could lead to a trade war and shifting global trade flows. Brazil and Thailand are two countries expected to benefit from these geopolitical tensions.

“They are already gaining market share in markets like China and Mexico, and this trend is likely to continue, especially if trade tensions escalate,” Mulder added.

Geopolitical tensions could also indirectly lead to changes in operations due to restrictions or shifting trade flows of inputs like agricultural commodities and feed additives.

“Global traders should be prepared to respond quickly to developments,” Mulder warned.