Inflation and consumers’ economic concerns have undoubtedly negatively impacted fresh seafood sales over the past couple of years. And, while many shoppers will continue seeking a value in 2025, some will be in a position to spend more on fresh, prepared and sustainable seafood, experts predict.

The incoming administration under President Donald Trump may boost the domestic economy, based on the reemergence of U.S. energy along with tariff policies, said Jason Resner, president at consultancy DNR Sales & Marketing Strategy Advisors and former meat and seafood sales, merchandising, marketing, and procurement lead for Fresh Thyme Market.

As a result, he expects an increase in disposable income across all income brackets. Whereas consumer focus has shifted to home-prepared meals over the past several years, Resner expects consumers “begin to be more confident in their spending power and venture out to more meals outside of the home” at some point next year. In fact, restaurants’ market share rose to 56.4% in October, with groceries and supermarkets making up the remainder, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. At the same time, food-away-from-home prices continue to trend significantly higher than grocery/supermarket prices, rising 3.8% in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, compared to 1.1% for food-at-home prices.And consumers are still feeling the overall effects of high grocery prices, along with increased housing, gas, and other expenses throughout the past year, Overall inflation rose 2.6% in October, according to the CPI, while food costs also increased 2.1%.

As a result, 88% of all meals are prepared at home, according to Circana’s October consumer survey, and consumers intend to eat more planned food at home than they do currently, according to a survey of 180 Kroger shoppers.As the economy improves in 2025 and inflation stays more consistent, the expectation is that consumers will shift away from the frozen “stock up” options and be more open to make incremental purchases of fresh seafood and perceived luxury items such as crab and lobster, according to Resner.

Inflation has come down in recent months and consumers are expressing more optimism about their personal finances, acknowledged Anne-Marie Roerink, principal at retail consultancy firm 210 Analytics. However, she expects sustained power for shelf-stable seafood and species that consumers associate with value.

“I suspect that affordability and value are going to be the headline for a while longer,” she said.

Rick Stein, vice president of fresh foods at FMI—The Food Industry Association, agrees. 

“Looking ahead to 2025, I think the seafood category will continue to struggle. Until consumers feel they have more spending power, they perceive seafood as a luxury option,” he said. “This relates to consumer perception of seafood and has nothing to do with actual costs but more about consumer sentiment in terms of how much seafood costs.”

Top species to promote in 2025

Imported species — including popular species such as salmon, shrimp and tilapia — are likely to be priced higher due to expected increased tariffs under the new Trump administration, said Jennifer Bushman, founder of the nonprofit Fed by Blue, which advocates for blue foods.

“A second Trump presidency might maintain or even increase tariffs on imported seafood, particularly from countries like China, which is a major supplier of frozen fish, shrimp, and other seafood,” she said. Likewise, Trump’s “America First” policies could also lead to disruptions in global seafood supply chains.

However, the Trump Administration’s likely support of domestic production could lead to more U.S.-sourced seafood on supermarket shelves—especially farmed species like catfish and tilapia, according to Bushman.

Shrimp and salmon will remain top sellers in 2025, especially since shrimp was much more affordable for supermarket buyers and shoppers in 2024. 

“Consumer demand for shrimp is gearing back up. Shrimp prices have gotten far more favorable over the past year, and while it took a bit, it appears they are back on the consumer radar as of the third quarter of the year,” Roerink said.

In fact, fresh shrimp sales grew 0.3% in October, while volume was up 0.4%, according to Circana. Frozen shrimp volume surged 6.2%, while sales climbed 0.7%.

There is also likely to be increased consumer demand for salmon due to the continued health and “precision-type wellness diet programs” that Boomers, GenXers, and millennials are following, as well as its emerging importance among Gen Z consumers, according to Resner. 

“The overall health benefits as well as the immense amount of protein a serving of salmon can provide will be infused into ‘better-for-you ’diets.”

Grocery retailers and restaurant operators that outwardly promote salmon’s benefits and educate via digital and in-store marketing on a repetitive basis in 2025 will see increased annual salmon consumption and sales, according to Resner. An additional advantage is that retailers that capture the salmon customer will most likely capture all of their seafood purchases if they establish themselves as a salmon destination in the eyes of the consumer through different species offerings as well as value-added items using healthier ingredients.

While the mainstream species will always be retailers’ core volume items, customers may be open to trying different options as a more “energized economy” emerges, according to Resner.

“In order to capitalize on this, smart retailers will need to increase their ‘treasure hunt ’type events with limited day or weekend ‘while supplies last ’events when introducing new and unique options,” Resner said. “This strategy has historically been proven successful to introduce different species that are not part of the core assortment — such as steelhead or king salmon — that increases their potential to then become and everyday offering in retailers that excel in assortment segmentation by store.”

This article is an excerpt from the December 2024 issue of Supermarket Perimeter. You can read the entire 2025 Seafood Forecast feature and more in the digital edition here.